全球气候变暖的检测及成因分析

文章对近年来有关全球气候变暖中一些问题的研究进展作了总结，主要结论如下：全球平均地面气温在过去一百年来上升0.5℃。80年代是近百年来最暖的10年。90年代初继续变暖。1990年是近百年来最暖的一年。1991年仅次於1990年。但是近百年气候变暖的幅度仍未超过自然变率。近千年中，中世纪暖期（900—1300年）的温暖程度就可能与20世纪相当，而小冰期（1550—1850年）气温则可能比20世纪低1.0—1.5℃。已经证实，对几十年到几百年尺度，太阳活动强时太阳总辐射也强，但变化幅度尚待进一步确定。强火山爆

The Detection of Global Climate Warming and Its Causes

The progress and advances in studies on the global climate warming are reviewed. The conclusions are as following: Earth surface temperature has increased by 0.5℃ during the last one hundred years. 1980’s became the warmest decade for that time interval. The warming is being in continuing in early 1990’s. 1990 was the warmest year, 1991 was the second warmer year since 1861. However, the warming of 0.5℃ is still in the range of natural variability. The temperatures in the Medieval Warm Period (900－1300) were probably comparable to that in the 20th century. The temperatures during the Little Ice Age (1550－1850) may be lower than that at present time by 1.0－1.5℃. Therefore, it is crucial to study systematically the impact of solar activity and volcanism on the climate for the last millennium. The warming in the warm scenario with doubled CO2 based on the time－dependent coupled GCM is 1.3－2.3℃, which is much less than the estimation of the balance simulation of AGCM. And, the cooling effect of the anthropogenic aerosol is emphasized, it could compensate partly the greenhouse effect.