自然环境因素对农户选择种植作物的影响机制——以黑龙江省宾县为例

【目的】探讨自然环境因素对农户农作物选择的影响机制，为农户的适应行为提供决策支持。【方法】本研究以黑龙江省宾县为研究区域，通过当面访谈方式，获取384个农户问卷调查数据；采用频率分析方法，从气象要素和自然灾害两个方面，分析自然环境变化对农户作物选择的影响及农户种植行为的适应机制。【结果】通过分析农户认知和选择行为发现，气象要素、自然灾害及作物产量对农户作物选择有影响，农户在作物类型变更时首先考虑产量因素，其次是气候因素，再次是自然灾害因素，但在对自然环境要求高的作物类型变化中，如水稻改玉米，自然环境因素受重视程度显著增加。更换作物类型与品种、调整农时是农户适应自然环境因素变化中采用较多的行为。农户对自然环境变化的感知与实际趋势是否一致，会影响农户是否主动改变作物类型。【结论】为提高农户适应自然环境因素变化的影响，今后宜从提高农户主动适应行为入手，引导农户改善应对气候变化与自然灾害能力，在应对行为上需有更为高层次的区域布局和政策引导。

Impact of Natural-Environmental Factors on the Crop Choices of Households — A Case Study in Binxian County of Heilongjiang Province

【Objective】 How famers change crops to adapt to climate and natural disasters, were studied in this paper in order to provides a basis for government policy-making.【Method】Questionnaire method was used to sample the perception of natural environmental change and crop choice of household. All of 384 farmers were being interviewed by a household face-to-face interview in Binxian County, Northeast China. Frequency method was used to analyze the impact of perception of climate change and natural disasters on famers’ crop choice in the past 30 years.【Result】The results show that climate change, frequency of natural disasters and crop yield could significantly affect famer crop choice. In famers’ attitude, crop yield was the first important factor when they changed crop, followed by climate change, less importance of the frequency of natural disasters. However, the importance of climate change and natural disasters will be improved when they change rice to maize because of crop growth closed to natural environment factor. Replacement of crop types and varieties and adjustment of farming season were the more popular behavior that farmers adapt to natural environmental factors. The trends of farmers perception of the natural environmental change were the same with the actual trends, it affect famers to take the initiative to change the type of crop.【Conclusion】In order to improve famers adaption to natural environmental change, the government should improve farmers active adaptive behavior, guide the famers to improve the ability to response to climate change and natural disasters, and more high-level regional agriculture planning and policy guidance are also needed in the future.