基于小概率法的大坝多源监测预警阈值研究

针对大坝预警指标阈值确定方法不完善、监控指标指导作用不强等问题，本文基于霍尔三维结构，系统阐述了大坝预警理论，构建了预警指标体系。通过将大坝监测数据正态分布计算转换成查询柯尔莫哥洛夫分布表，提出了基于小概率法的大坝多源监测预警阈值拟定方法。结合某水库观测数据，拟定该大坝表面沉降及渗流量的预警阈值，分析结果表明，该方法能够有效评估监测指标与历年来抵御不利工况的能力，更好的反映大坝运行状况，极大地提高了监测信息的预警价值。

Study on the threshold of dam multi-source monitoring and early warning based on small probability method

In view of the imperfection of the method for determining the threshold value of the dam early warning index and the weak guiding role of the monitoring index, this paper systematically expounds the dam early warning theory based on the Hall three-dimensional structure, and constructs the early warning index system. By transforming the normal distribution calculation of dam monitoring data into the query of Kolmogorov distribution table, a method for determining the early warning threshold of dam multi-source monitoring based on small probability method is proposed.Combined with the observation data of a reservoir, the early-warning threshold of the surface settlement and seepage flow of the dam is proposed. The analysis results show that the method can effectively evaluate the monitoring indicators and the ability to resist adverse working conditions over the years, better reflect the operation of the dam, and greatly improve the reliability of the monitoring and early-warning indicators.