疾病传播动力学研究中的流行模拟方法

目的:建立疾病传播动力学研究中模拟流行的方法.方法:在建立传染病传播动力学模型的基础上,采用Vanguard DecisionPro软件中的Markov模型方法模拟疾病流行,以北京SARS流行模拟及模型的抽象研究为例说明其应用.结果:DecisionPro Markov模型可以直观地描述疾病传播动力学模型.在Markov模型中,各模型参数取值可以随时调整,并可通过编程实现;可以观察模型状态变量的实时变化,预测疾病的流行趋势;通过敏感性分析功能,可以研究模型变量之间相互作用的规律;通过想定研究方法,可以定量评价输入参数变化对流行的影响.实例研究发现,该方法很适合流行模拟研究,可以用于干预措施效果的定量评价.结论:DecisionPro Markov模型方法是一种较为理想的模拟疾病流行的方法,可以用于传播动力学模型的抽象研究.

A method for simulating epidemic in transmission dynamics study

Objective:To develop a method for simulating epidemic in transmission dynamics study. Methods: Markov model in software Vanguard DecisionPro based on transmission dynamics model was used to mimic epidemic. As an example, epidemic simulation and abstract study of epidemic model of SARS in Beijing were done to illustrate its application. Results: DecisionPro Markov model described the epidemic model visually. In the Markov model, values of parameters were modified easily by programming method. Real-time change of state variables was observed, which could predict the trend of epidemic. By sensitive analysis, we were able to study the interaction between model variables and by scenario method, we could evaluate impacts of value changes of input variables on epidemic quantitatively. It was found that our method was an appropriate method for epidemic simulation research and could be used to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of intervention measures. Conclusion: DecisionPro Markov model is ideal in epidemic simulation and can be used to make an abstract study of transmission dynamics model.