中国碳排放的省域差异及影响因素的实证研究

参照IPCC(2006)以及国家气候变化对策协调小组办公室和国家发改委能源研究所)的方法,估算了我国30个省(直辖市、自治区)的1997—2011年期间的二氧化碳排放量.数据显示,我国各省(直辖市、自治区)的二氧化碳排放量从整体上基本都呈现出上升趋势,地区差异比较显著.总体上来讲,我国的二氧化碳排放量呈现出由东到西依次递减的规律特征,东部地区的二氧化碳排放量最多,中部地区次之,西部地区二氧化碳排放量最少,而且东部地区的二氧化碳排放在绝对量上大大超过中西两大区域.产业结构和经济发展是影响各地区二氧化碳排放量的主要因素,能源消费结构和出口贸易对各地区碳排放量的影响不显著.

Empirical Research on Provincial Differences and Factors of Carbon Emissions in China

This paper made a detailed estimate of carbon dioxide emissions in China’s 30 provinces（cities,districts） from 1 997 to 201 1,by the method of IPCC（Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change）（2006）and the national coordination committee on climate change and the national development and reform commission energy research institute （2007）.The analy-sis shows that carbon dioxide emissions of the provinces （municipalities and autonomous regions）show a rising trend with marked differences between different regions,Gnerally speaking,carbon dioxide emissions presents a feature in descending or-der from east to west,i.e.,carbon dioxide emission in the eastern region is the maximum,followed by the central region,and is the least in the western region.And the absolute amount of carbon dioxide emission in the eastern region is much higher than those in the central and western regions.The main factors affecting the carbon dioxide emissions is industrial structure and eco-nomic development,energy consumption structure and export trade is not significant.