中国极端气温季节变化对全球变暖减缓的响应分析

利用经过质量控制和均一化处理的中国气象站点1979-2014年逐月最高气温和最低气温资料,对806个无缺测站的数据进行趋势分析和比较,并且计算了各季节对变暖减缓的贡献率,结果表明:中国区域极端气温(最高和最低气温)存在变暖减缓或变冷现象,而不同区域在不同季节对全球变暖减缓的响应程度不同.相比于1979-1999年,2000-2014年极端气温在全国大部分地区春、冬季有明显的变暖减缓或者变冷现象,在长江流域以北大部分地区极端气温在夏季变暖减缓或变冷现象明显,而秋季全国大部分地区最低气温有明显的增暖现象.全国许多地区春季是导致极端气温变暖减缓或变冷的最主要季节,而夏、秋、冬季则是导致部分地区变暖减缓或变冷的主要季节,此外秋季也是导致全国许多地区最低气温变暖的最主要季节.我国大部分地区2000-2014年的变暖减缓或变冷趋势可能受太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)冷位相的调控,而PDO冷位相对最低气温的影响范围更大一些.

Response of seasonal extreme temperatures in China to the global warming slow down

Based on the homogeneity-adjusted and quality-controlled monthly maximum and minimum temperatures from meteorological stations in China from 1979 to 2014, the changing trends of 806 meteorological stations are analyzed and compared, and the contribution rate of each season to warming slow down are calculated. The result shows that the extreme temperatures in China have undergone warming slow down or cooling, while the responses of seasonal extreme temperatures to global warming slow down are quite different. Compared to that in 1979-1999, extreme temperatures in spring and winter in most regions in China had warming slow down or cooling phenomena in 2000-2014, and the magnitude of warming slow down or cooling in summer was obvious in the north of the Yangtze River basin, while there was an apparent warming phenomenon, especially, for the minimum temperature in most of areas of China in autumn. The most regions in spring have significant tendency for warming slow down or cooling of the extreme temperatures, but in autumn, summer and winter only parts of regions occur warming slow down or cooling. What's more, autumn is the dominant season, when warming of the minimum temperature occurs in a lot of regions in China. The trend of warming slow down or cooling may be regulated by the cold phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in most regions in 2000-2014, but the cold phase of PDO may have more influence range on the minimum temperature.