中国电力消费与经济增长的均衡关系分析

为了研究中国电力消费与经济增长之间是否具有长期稳定均衡关系,用协整分析方法检验了中国国内生产总值(GDP)与电力消费水平之间关系。采用恩格尔-葛兰杰(E-G)检验,考虑数据结构变化的可能,研究了外部经济冲击对中国经济增长与电力消费之间长期均衡关系的影响。分析结果表明:E-G方法检测到我国经济增长与电力消费之间存在协整关系;考虑结构变化,通过设定虚拟变量,E-G方法检测到原有协整关系在1993年发生了变化。结合我国电力市场发展的实际状况,得出协调我国电力生产与经济增长矛盾的方法。

Analysis of equilibrium relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in China

In order to investigate the existence of a stable long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption in China,the relationship between the gross domestic product(GDP) and electricity consumption in China was investigated using the method of co-integration analysis.Using the Engle-Granger(E-G) test and considering the possibility of structural changes,the impact of external economic shocks on the long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption in China was analyzed.Analysis results show that the E-G test detects the co-integration relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption;considering structural changes,E-G test detects the change of original co-integration relationship in 1993 through specifying the dummy variable.Combining the real situation of the electricity market development in China,this study provides a method of coordinating the inconsistency between economic growth and electricity consumption.