油气勘探开发投资优化

以探明储量增长模型为基础建立了油气累计勘探投资与油气累计探明储量之间的关系模型;用数据包络分析法(DEA)建立了油气新建产能-油气开发工程建设投资模型.结合对数形式的油气开发操作成本模型构建了油公司油气开发投资-油气产量的关系模型;在投资-储量-产量关系模型的基础上,以企业利润最大化为目标,考虑产量构成、储采比及开采速度等方面的约束条件,构造了石油公司勘探开发投资多阶段优化模型,并用遗传算法给出了既定条件下石油公司多阶段最优化投资结构.该方法可以为石油公司制定长期发展战略规划、长期勘探开发投资方案提供方法依据,以减小勘探、开发投资中的盲目性及主观性,促进油气资源的合理、有序勘探开发.

Investment optimization in oil and gas plays

A model was established to illustrate the relation between cumulative exploration investment and growth of total proved reserves on the basis of growth model of total proved reserves. The Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) theory was used to give an optimal solution of the function of constructed productivity and development investment, and, together with an exponential oil & gas operational cost function, a model of the relation between development investment and oil & gas output was deduced. Based on the models of investment-exploration-development relations, and considering maximum profit, yield component, reserves-to-output ratio and production rate, an optimal function of multi-stage investment was established, which can result in multi-stage investment structure under given conditions with genetic algorithms. The method can provide scientific basis for oil companies to make a long-term strategic program and investment plan in oil and gas exploration and development, decrease the subjective blindness in the investment and bring about a reasonable and orderly exploration and development of oil and gas resources.