Black swans,power laws,and dragon-kings: Earthquakes,volcanic eruptions,landslides, wildfires,floods, and SOC models |
| |
Authors: | M K Sachs M R Yoder D L Turcotte J B Rundle B D Malamud |
| |
Affiliation: | 1.Department of Physics,University of California,Davis,USA;2.Department of Geology,University of California,Davis,USA;3.Santa Fe Institute,Santa Fe,USA;4.Department of Geography,Kings College London,London,UK |
| |
Abstract: | Extreme events that change global society have been characterized as black swans. The frequency-size distributions of many
natural phenomena are often well approximated by power-law (fractal) distributions. An important question is whether the probability
of extreme events can be estimated by extrapolating the power-law distributions. Events that exceed these extrapolations have
been characterized as dragon-kings. In this paper we consider extreme events for earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, wildfires,
landslides and floods. We also consider the extreme event behavior of three models that exhibit self-organized criticality
(SOC): the slider-block, forest-fire, and sand-pile models. Since extrapolations using power-laws are widely used in probabilistic
hazard assessment, the occurrence of dragon-king events have important practical implications. |
| |
Keywords: | |
本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录! |
|