自上而下的城市能源消耗碳排放估算方法

快速的城镇化进程带来城市碳排放的快速增长，准确的城市水平碳排放数据对于制定科学合理的碳减排政策极为关键，明确碳排放源的关键类别可以做到有的放矢和精准管控.但是目前中国碳排放数据的研究主要集中在国家、地区和省级层面，城市水平由于所需基础数据的不透明和不准确，长久以来缺乏完整的碳排放清单.为解决该问题，在以前相关研究的基础上，通过省级能源平衡表，尝试利用合理的分配指标从省级碳排放数据估算出下属城市的碳排放，构建了一套自上而下的城市能源消耗碳排放估算方法.通过与现有可获得的城市水平数据进行对比，发现估算差距均在10%以内，证明了该方法的可行性和准确性，并尝试在时间尺度进行了扩展.为获取在时间和空间上均连续的中国城市能源消耗碳排放数据提供了科学的方法和合理的思路，也能为各城市分配减排任务和城市间进行减排协商提供可靠的数据支撑.

A top-bottom estimation method for city-level energy-related CO2 emissions

Due to the fast process of urbanization in China recently, rapid growth of urban carbon emissions has been greatly brought about, it's generally recognized that accurate city-level carbon emission data are crucial for formulating scientific and reasonable carbon emission reduction policies. By clarifying the key categories of carbon emission sources, different kinds of carbon emissions can be targeted and precisely controlled. However, recent researches on carbon emissions were mainly concentrated at the national, regional and provincial levels, and due to the opacity and inaccuracy of the required basic data, complete carbon emission inventories for general prefecture cities have not been well compiled for a long period. To solve the problem, on the basis of previous studies, the provincial energy balance table and reasonable distribution indicators are used to estimate carbon emissions in subordinate cities from provincial carbon emissions data in our research, and a set of top-bottom urban energy consumption carbon emission estimation methods was constructed. The comparison with the publicly available city level carbon emission database showed that the estimation gap was all within 10%, which proved the feasibility and accuracy of the method. We also tried to extend the method on the time scale and provide the validation. This paper provided a scientific method and reasonable ideas for acquiring carbon emissions data of Chinese cities that were continuous in both time and space scale, and could also provide reliable data support for allocating carbon emission reduction tasks and emission reduction consultations between cities.