The prediction of asphalt pavement permanent deformation by T-GM(1,2) dynamic model |
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Authors: | Guo-Dong Li Daisuke Yamaguchi Masatake Nagai Shiro Masuda |
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Affiliation: | 1. Department of System Design , Tokyo Metropolitan University , Hino City, 191-0065 Japan guodong_li2006@yahoo.co.jp;3. Graduate School of Natural Science and Technology, Okayama University , Okayama City, 700-8530 Japan;4. Faculty of Engineering , Kanagawa University , Yokohama City, 221-8686 Japan;5. Department of System Design , Tokyo Metropolitan University , Hino City, 191-0065 Japan |
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Abstract: | In this article, we propose a prediction model of asphalt pavement permanent deformation based on improved grey prediction model. This improved prediction model combines the first-order two variables grey differential equation model (abbreviated as GM(1,2) model) from grey system theory and Taylor approximation method from approximation optimisation theory. We abbreviate the combined model as T-GM(1,2) model. The combined model can obtain the most optimal predicted value by multiple approximate calculation. We validated the effectiveness of T-GM(1,2) model, through using the measured data of deformation depth obtained from the wheel tracking device test. The experimental result showed that the T-GM(1,2) model has high predictable power for asphalt pavement permanent deformation. |
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Keywords: | pavement management system pavement permanent deformation grey system theory grey dynamic model Taylor approximation method optimisation method |
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