塔里木油田碳酸盐岩油藏产量预测方法

碳酸盐岩油藏非均质性强，初期产量递减快，常规产量预测方法不能满足生产需要。为此研究优化了传统预测方法，阐述了指数递减分类预测和扩展指数递减预测的基本模型和拟合方法。在找到影响产量变化的主要因素后，对已投产老井进行分类，利用指数递减分类模型拟合油井生产数据，可以较好地指导老井在规划期的产量预测。扩展指数递减模型适用于碳酸盐岩油藏此类投产后呈现较快递减趋势的油藏，借鉴相似类型油藏已有老井的扩展指数递减规律，可以预测新井在规划期的产量。2种预测方法相结合，可进一步提高碳酸盐岩油藏预测产量的可靠性，指导此类油藏在未来一段时间的生产实践。

Research Progress on Oil and Gas Geology and Exploration Practice in Qaidam Basin

Since the 13th Five-Year Plan, in accordance with the guiding ideology of “marching toward unconventional oil and gas and prospecting oil and gas in deep strata”, the Qinghai oilfield has vigorously promoted the exploration of unconventional and deep oil and gas resources and the studies on related theories. Over several years of research, a series of new progresses and new understandings have been achieved：the hydrocarbon-generating parent material in saline-lacustrine source rocks and its hydrocarbon generation mechanism have been identified; a hydrocarbon generation model including interactions among soluble organic matter, kerogen and minerals has been established, which is so called “three-factor controlling” hydrocarbon-generation model; the characteristics and forming mechanisms of fine-grained carbonate reservoirs, deep clastic reservoirs and basement reservoirs have been summarized; and the hydrocarbon accumulation patterns of mixed carbonate reservoirs and deep clastic reservoirs have been built. Guided by these theoretical understandings, a series of exploration targets such as the deep mixed carbonate reservoirs in the Yingxiongling structural belt, deep clastic gas reservoirs in the north Lenghu slope, and basement gas reservoirs in the piedmont of Altyn Tagh mountain have been proved and significant discoveries have been gained. As of April 2019, the cumulative incremental proved OOIP is 2.5×108 tons of equivalent crude oil