辽河西部凹陷岩性圈闭含油性定量预测模型

为了解决辽河西部凹陷岩性圈闭是否含油、含油多少的定量表征问题，对研究区117个岩性圈闭进行了地质统计分析和R型主因子分析，研究结果表明，圈闭距离排烃中心的距离、所在地点的流体势、砂地比、砂体厚度等是制约岩性圈闭油充满度的主控因素。依据相关性分析和多元回归分析建立了岩性圈闭油充满度与其主控因素的多元非线性定量预测模型。选取了未参与模型建立的26个岩性圈闭对已建立的预测模型进行了可靠性验证。验证结果表明：80％以上的岩性圈闭油充满度预测值与实际值吻合较好，这为该区同种类型的圈闭含油性定量预测提供了一种可行的方法．

Quantitative prediction of fullness degree of lithologic trap in West Sag of Liaohe Depression

In order to determine whether the trap is oil-bearing or not and how much is the fullness degree of lithologic trap in West Sag of Liaohe Depression, the geostatistic analysis and R-model principal factor analysis are carried out to 117 lithologic traps. The results show that the main controlling factors of the fullness degree of lithologic trap are the distance between lithologic trap and the center of hydrocarbon expulsion, the fluid potential, the sand content of target stratum and the sand thickness. Based on the correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis, the quantitative prediction models between the fullness degree and each of the controlling factors are established. The validation results of these prediction models indicate that more than 80% predicted fullness degree values of lithologic trap are consistent to the factual values, which implies that this prediction method is practicable.