| 用数学方法对郑州城市主要空气污染物预测的机理研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李钢,宋海军,蒋文静.用数学方法对郑州城市主要空气污染物预测的机理研究[J].郑州纺织工学院学报,2013(5):41-43. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李钢 宋海军 蒋文静 |
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| 作者单位： | 河南工程学院,郑州451191 |
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| 基金项目： | 河南省科技发展计划科技攻关项目（132102210462）;河南省高等学校青年骨干教师资助计划项目（河南省教育厅高教[2013]678号） |
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| 摘 要： | 基于郑州市2003-2011年主要空气污染物的监测数据，利用灰色理论、移动平均法、指数平滑法、最小二乘法等4种数学方法，对2013—2016年郑州市空气污染物的浓度值进行预测计算．通过对4种数学方法及计算结果的分析得知，PM10仍将是未来郑州城市空气首要污染物，NO2在未来几年呈现微降趋势，SO2预测值不超出国家二级标准．
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| 关 键 词： | 空气污染 数学预测 PM10 |
The Mechanism and Prediction Study of Major Air Pollutants in Zhengzhou by Mathematical Methods |
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| LI Gang,SONG Hai-jun,JIANG Wen-jing.The Mechanism and Prediction Study of Major Air Pollutants in Zhengzhou by Mathematical Methods[J].Journal of Zhengzhou Textile Institute,2013(5):41-43. |
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| Authors: | LI Gang SONG Hai-jun JIANG Wen-jing |
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| Affiliation: | (Henan Institute of Engineering, Zhengzhou 451191, China) |
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| Abstract: | On the basis of the assessment and study of 9 years＇ data from 2003 to 2011 in Zhengzhou a- bout the main pollutants monitored online, predication calculation of air pollutants of next 4 years＇ data from 2013 to 2016 that get from the grey prediction model, moving average, exponential smoothing and least-square estimation, are worked out respectively. Comparison with various mathematical principles and calculations, the paper points out during the next 4 years the PM10 would be the major pollution in Zhengzhou, the concentration of NO2 would probably continue to decrease slightly and the predicts of SO2 would not exceed national secondary standard. |
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| Keywords: | air pollution mathematical predication PM10 |
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