缺血性脑卒中发病危险因素的病例对照研究

目的了解缺血脑卒中患者发病的影响因素,根据影响因素建立发病概率预测模型,为防治缺血性脑卒中提供依据。方法采用1∶1的病例对照研究方法,使用自行设计的问卷调查研究对象的各种资料;利用条件logistic回归分析方法构建预测模型,并利用ROC曲线方法评价模型预测效果。结果影响缺血性脑卒中发病的危险因素有吸烟、高血压、甘油三酯、低密度脂蛋白(LDL),而文化程度、体力活动、生活自主程度、高密度脂蛋白(HDL)为保护因素;预测准确率高达92.8%。结论条件logistic回归预测概率模型预测效果较好,能较为准确地预测疾病发病概率。

A case-control study on risk factors of ischemic stroke

[Objective]To understand the influencing factors of ischemic stroke,and establish the prediction model of morbidity probability,and provide evidence for ischemic stroke control. [Methods]With 1∶1 case-control study method,the self-designed questionnaire was adopted to collect different data of study objects.Then the conditional logistic regression method was used to build up predictive model and ROC method was utilized to evaluate predictive effect of this model. [Results]The main risk factors of ischemic stroke included smoking,hypertensions,TG and LDL,and the protective factors were culture level degree,physical activity,life independence degree and HDL.The accuracy of this predictive model was 92.8%. [Conclusion]The predictive effect of conditional logistic regression method was satisfied.It can predict the morbidity of diseases accurately.