基于突变级数法的中国低碳经济复杂系统综合评价

低碳经济是人类社会实现可持续发展的内在要求和重要途径，是应对气候变化的必然选择。首先界定了低碳经济SREE复杂系统，该系统由社会、资源、经济和环境4个相互独立又相互联系的子系统构成的复杂巨系统。以此为基础，构建了包括经济系统、资源环境系统和社会系统在内的低碳经济复杂系统综合评价指标体系。考虑到运用突变级数法对指标体系进行评价的需要，指标体系全部由定量指标构成，避免了人为确定定性指标权重的主观性。其次，运用突变级数评价方法对2005～2009年的中国低碳经济复杂系统进行了评价。从评价结果来看，我国低碳经济复杂系统按照波浪型曲线运行，这是国际金融危机和国内经济结构调整双重因素导致的结果，同时也是复杂系统内部子系统相互影响、相互作用的结果。最后，提出了当前中国低碳经济复杂系统可持续发展的相应战略

COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION OF COMPLEX SYSTEM OF LOW-CARBON ECONOMY IN CHINA BASED ON THE CATASTROPHE PROGRESSION METHOD

Low-carbon economy is the inner requirement and important path to realize sustainable development for human society.And it is also the inevitable choice to cope with climate change.Firstly,this paper defines the SREE complex system of low-carbon economy,which consists of society system,resource system,economic system and environment system.And these four sub-system are independent and interrelated.Based on it,the paper builds the comprehensive evaluation index system of complex system of low-carbon economy.Considering the needs of evaluating the SREE complex system by using the catastrophe progression method,the quantitative indexes are included in the index system for avoiding to determine the weight of the qualitative indexes subjectively.Secondly,the paper evalues the SREE complex system of low-carbon economy from 2005 to 2009 in China.According to the result of comprehensive evaluation,the operation curve of the SREE complex system of low-carbon economy is the wave curve.It is not only the results of double factors,which are international financial crisis and the adjustment of domestic economic structure,but also the results of the mutual influence and interaction of four sub-system.Finally,the paper puts forward the sustainable development strategies of the SREE complex system of low-carbon economy in China.