城镇居民生活用电需求预测模型

随着我国经济的发展和经济结构的调整,居民用电占全社会用电量的比重逐渐增大并有继续增加的趋势。为了定量分析我国城镇居民生活用电的未来发展,从统计数据出发,选择城镇居民人均收入、城镇民用电价、前一年的城镇居民人均生活用电量作为解释变量,建立了城镇居民生活用电需求预测计量方程,确定了用电量和影响用电量的因素之间的理论和数量关系,同时为了提高模型的预测精度,揭示短期波动,建立了关于城镇居民生活用电的误差修正模型。并以此预测了2004年和2005年的用电量。结果表明,未来几年内,我国城镇居民人均生活用电量将以5.0%左右的年增长率变化。

Urban residential electricity consumption forecast model

With the development of economy and adjustment of economic structure in China,the proportion of the residential electricity consumption in total electricity consumption is increasing gradually.In order to analyze the future of residential living electricity demand quantitatively,based on the statistical data,urban residential per capita income,urban electricity price and last year urban residential per capita electricity consumption were regarded as explanatory variables,and econometric equation of urban residential electricity consumption was established.This model determines the theory and quantity relationship between electricity consumption and factors that have impacts on electricity consumption.In order to improve the forecast precision and disclose short-term fluctuation,Error Correction Model was given subsequently.The forecast results of electricity consumption in 2004 and 2005 show the urban residential electricity consumption will grow at the rate of 5% annually in the future.