| 中国的百岁老人研究Ⅱ.百岁老人的死亡率、生存率和发展趋势 |
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| 引用本文： | 秦俊法.中国的百岁老人研究Ⅱ.百岁老人的死亡率、生存率和发展趋势[J].广东微量元素科学,2007,14(10):11-19. |
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| 作者姓名： | 秦俊法 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院上海应用物理研究所,上海,201800 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据全国人口普查资料,用指数函数拟合法计算了中国百岁老人的死亡率和生存率,得出中国人口的最高自然寿限为120岁,并预测到2010年中国百岁老人绝对数将达4万多人,届时每百万人口中将有30位百岁老人,比2000年增加1倍以上。
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| 关 键 词： | 中国 百岁老人 死亡率 生存率 自然寿限 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-446X（2007）10-0011-09 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-08-14 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年8月14日 |
Study on China's Senior Residents Aged at or above 100 Years Old Ⅱ. Mortality Rate, Living Rate and Trends |
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| QIN Junfa.Study on China''''s Senior Residents Aged at or above 100 Years Old Ⅱ. Mortality Rate, Living Rate and Trends[J].Trace Elements Science,2007,14(10):11-19. |
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| Authors: | QIN Junfa |
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| Affiliation: | Shanghai Institute of Applied Physiecs, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 201800, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on statistics from China's national-wide census,the mortality rate and living rate of China's senior residents aged at or above 100 years old were calculated by the fitting method of the exponential function.According to the calculation results,the highest natural life expectancy of China's population is 120.It was anticipated there will be more than 40 thousand senior residents aged at or above 100 in China by 2010.This is to say,there will be 30 senior residents aged at or above 100 years old per 1 million Chinese,twice the number compared to that of 2000. |
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| Keywords: | China senior residents aged at or above 100 years old mortality rate existence rate natural life expectancy |
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