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引用本文:张鹏,陈利琼,侯向秦,施林圆. ���ڷ��յ������ܵ�����������ά�����ߣ�һ��[J]. 天然气工业, 2004, 24(9): 159-162
作者姓名:张鹏  陈利琼  侯向秦  施林圆
作者单位:1.???????????2.?й?????????????????????????
基金项目:石油科技中青年创新基金,油气藏地质及开发工程国家重点实验室开放基金 (PLN0 113),四川省应用基础研究专项基金 (0 1GY0 5 1- 4 0 )资助项目
摘    要:对管线进行完整性维护是目前管道公司的一项重要任务。文章分析了油气管线风险评价技术的现状,指出目前研究工作的范围和重点;介绍了一种处理管线维护资源最优分配的技术——基于风险的管线完整性维护决策优化技术。该方法分为系统排序和决策分析两过程:系统排序按照完整性维修等级或单位风险降低费用对不同管段进行排序;决策分析评估可供选择的维修方式,确定每一个目标管段的最优维修方式。建立了管道完整性维护决策的数学模型,模型包括五要素:状态集、决策集、概率分布、后果函数、决策准则与最优值。着重介绍了完整性维护决策优化的效用函数方法,包括效用函数的定义、分析原理、多准则效用函数的评估方法、基于效用函数的决策树、效用函数的构成等。还介绍了有限费用的决策优化方法。最后指出定量风险评价以及该技术中存在的难点,并提出建议。

关 键 词:油气集输  管道维修  费用  风险分析  决策分析

Decision Based on Risk for Optimum Integrity Maintenance of Oil/Gas Pipeline
Zhang Peng,Chen Liqiong,Hou Xiangqin. Decision Based on Risk for Optimum Integrity Maintenance of Oil/Gas Pipeline[J]. Natural Gas Industry, 2004, 24(9): 159-162
Authors:Zhang Peng  Chen Liqiong  Hou Xiangqin
Abstract:The article analyzes the actualities of the risk evaluation technology for oil/gas pipelines, proposes the range and emphasis of nowadays research, and introduces a technique( the decision-making optimization technique based on risk for pipeline integrity maintenance) for optimized dis tribution of maintenance resource. The technique consists of two stages, i. e. system prioritizing and decision-making a-nalysis. In the stage of system prioritizing, different pipe sections are prioritized in term of the level of pipe integrity maintenance o'r of the cost of the unit risk reduce. In the stage of decision-making analysis, the options of maintenance measures are evaluated to make sure an optimal maintenance measure for each target section. The mathematical model of pipeline integrity maintenance is established. It covers five elements. They are state aggregate, decision-making aggre gate, probability distribution, consequence function, deci sion-making criterion and optimum. The utility function method of decision-making optimization for oil/gas pipeline integrity maintenance is mainly introduced, including the definition and analysis principle of the utility function, the e-valuation method of multi-criterion utility function, the deci sion-making tree based on the utility function, and the com position of the utility function, etc. Also, the decision-mak ing optimization method is introduced for limited money. In the end, the quantitative risk evaluation is described. Its dif ficulties are pointed out. And the related suggestions are proposed.
Keywords:Oil/gas gathering and transmis sion   Pipeline repairing   Cost   Risk analysis   Decision-mak ing analysis   Mathematical model
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