深圳市流感预警机制的应用与探讨

目的　制定符合深圳市特点的流行性感冒（流感）预警机制，尽可能降低流感暴发或流行带来的社会经济损失。 方法　以分析2007年1-8月全市的流感样病例（influenza?鄄like illness, ILI）警戒曲线、流感病毒分离曲线、ILI暴发疫情曲线为基础，应用三级预警机制指标评价流感活动的实际变化趋势。结果　全市ILI监测、病毒分离监测、ILI暴发疫情三者的变化趋势较为一致，均于6月中下旬出现高峰，三级预警机制具有一定的实际指导意义。 结论　深圳市的流感三级预警机制具有较好的灵敏性和可操作性，可为科学防控流感提供重要支持。

Application of influenza warning system in Shenzhen

Objective The study was conducted to develop an influenza warning system according to the current conditions in Shenzhen so that influenza outbreaks and subsequent socioeconomic loss could be minimized. Methods Alert curves of influenza-like illness (ILI),curves of influenza virus isolation and plots of ILI outbreaks from January to August,2007 in Shenzhen were analyzed to assess the changing trends of influenza epidemic based on the three-level warning indicators. Results Consistency between ILI surveillance,isolation of virus and outbreaks of ILI was observed with peaks in late June. The three-level warning system was therefore practically feasible. Conclusion The three-level influenza warning system proved to be sensitive and practical for preventive prediction of influenza cases in Shenzhen.