全球主要地震区的18.6年地震轮回

本文根据月球交点运动周期规律,发现全球主要地震区的浅源大地震(1897—1990,Ms≥7.0)都存在18.6年地震轮回:活跃期为12.4年,平静期为6.2年。根据最好的统计结果,13个研究区中有4个区这种轮回存在的置信水平为95%,有9个区为98%。本文给出了各研究区的范围、各活跃期的具体时间、x~2检验结果和时空分布图。本文还定义了标志震级Mm来反映各研究区不同的地震活动水平。本文的结果可以充分代表全球浅源大地震的活动图象,为认识地震轮回的机制和地震的混沌性提供了新的资料。

THE 18.6 YEAR SEISMIC CYCLE IN GLOBAL MAJOR SEISMIC REGIONS

In this paper, according to the periodic law of lunnar node motion, author finds that large shallow earthquakes ( 1897-1990 ) in global major seismic regions show the characteristic of seismic cycle with active period of 12.4 years and quiet period of 6.2 years, of 13 studied regions, 4 regions show such seismic cycle at the confindence level of 95 percent and other 9 regions at the confidence level of 98 percent based on the best statistic results. The scope of each studied region, the x test values and figures of space-time distribution of events are given. At the same lime, a mark magnitude Mm is defined to express the different seismicity in cach studied region. The results obtained in this paper may represent active pathern of large shallow earthquakes in the world and offer some new information for better understanding ma-chanism of seismic cycle and chaos of earthquakes.