北京市社会消费品零售额变动趋势分析

社会消费品零售总额的高低将直接影响社会经济的增长，在刺激消费，拉动经济增长的大环境下，对北京市社会消费品零售额变动规律及其发展趋势进行了简要分析，首先，对北京市改革开放２０年来社会消费品零售总额的发展变化规律，和相应的数学模型－－二次抛物线给以表达，其次，采用三次指数平滑法计算出模型中的未知参数，确定了模型；然后，通过检测说明模型拟合效果的好坏；最后，从相关方面提出了北京市社会消费品零售总额的发展

Analysis of Change Tendency of Total Retail Amount of Commodities in Beijing

The total retail amount of commodities will directly influence the economicgrowth. Here briefiy analyzed the change rule and developing trend of the retail amountof commodities in Beijing, i.e. described the developing pattem in the 20 years of opening plicy with mathematics model-quadratic parabola. Further determined the unknownparameters in the model with the thrice index translation method, and then explained thesimulation effectiveness through checking the model simulation results. In the end,proposed the developing trend of the total retail amount of commodities in Beijing.