公共支出能否促进经济增长:中国的经验分析

政府公共支出对经济增长的效应问题一直在理论界颇有争议,对各国政府公共支出政策效应的实际考察也众说纷纭。作者认为,在公共支出过程中存在着大量的“调整成本”,这既包括与大规模的公共支出相伴随的安装和调配成本,也包括由于公共支出过程中的寻租和“非生产性寻利”行为而造成的社会福利损失。为了考察调整成本对公共支出效应的影响,本文对中国公共支出与经济增长展开了时间序列和横截面的经验分析。自1980年以来,中国财政收入与支出占GDP的比重下降、中央的财权相对于地方政府逐步削减、预算外支出比重不断上升、预算外支出主要由地方所控制等种种现象都表明,围绕公共支出的调整成本上升了,对经济增长带来了不容忽视的负面影响。

Does Public Expenditure boost Economic Growth: an Analysis of China's Experience

The theory circle has been arguing over the effect of governmental public expenditure(PE) upon economic growth, and opinions vary about the field survey of PE policies of the government of various countries. In my opinion, in the process of PE there exists tons of adjustment cost, including installment cost and allocation cost accompanied by immense PE, and social welfare loss sparked off, in the process of PE, by seeking hiring and by looking after benefit not derived from production. To investigate the effect of adjustment cost upon the result of PE, we in this article have made an empirical analysis of China's PE and economic growth in terms of time series and cross - section. Since 1980, the proportion of China' s revenue to expenditure has dropped, the financial authority wielded by the central government, relative to that by the local government, has lowered, the proportion of unbudgeted expenditure has kept increasing, and extra - budgetary expenditure has been mainly controlled by the local government - all these phenomena indicate that the adjustment cost concerning PE has been increased and has resulted in negative effect not to be ignored.