考虑知识不确定性的核电厂地震易损性概率模型研究

考虑知识不确定性的地震易损性模型公式是核电厂地震易损性分析的理论基础,包括具有置信度的易损性公式和平均值易损性公式。本文分别对两类公式进行了推导,分析了公式中参数的相互关系,研究了基于两类易损性公式分别得到的高置信度低失效概率值的关系。分析结果表明:基于易损性的不确定性角度的公式推导丰富了具有置信度易损性公式的内涵;对于具有置信度的易损性模型公式,失效概率与置信度服从某种分布,且两类不确定性对失效概率具有不同影响;两类不确定性的对数标准差取值相近时,两类高置信度低失效概率能力值近似相等。

Study on Seismic Fragility Probability Model of Nuclear Power Plant Considering Epistemic Uncertainty

Seismic fragility model formulae considering epistemic uncertainty , w hich include fragility formula including confidence and mean fragility formula ,were the theo‐retical foundation of seismic fragility analysis for nuclear power plants .In this paper , two types of formulae derivation were conducted ,the parameters relationship of fragility formulae was analyzed ,and the relationship of HCLPF values calculated by two types of fragility formulae was discussed . The results show that the formulae derivation type based on uncertainty of fragilities enriches the connotation of the fragility formula inclu‐ding confidence . For fragility model formula including confidence , the relationship between the confidence and probability of failure follows a type of distribution ,while two types of uncertainties have different influences on probability of failure .When loga‐rithmic standard deviations for two types of uncertainties approach each other , two types of HCLPF values are approximately the same .