1997-2013年中国省域创新差异演化及影响因素分析——基于空间杜宾模型的实证研究

以中国31个省域单元为研究区域，采用空间面板数据，运用探索性空间数据分析和空间计量经济学方法对省域创新差异演化及影响因素进行分析。结果表明：在研究时段1997—2013年间，我国省域创新的空间集聚程度在不断增加，空间邻近效应在不断增强，总体空间差异呈现出扩大趋势；区域创新的核心地区较为稳定在长三角和珠三角地区，核心区域在东部沿海有所收缩的同时在中西部地区有扩张趋势。通过构建空间计量经济学模型，对省域单元创新产出的影响因素进行了实证研究，得出 R＆D 人员全时当量、R＆D 经费支出、高技术产品进出口总额对创新提高的正向效应显著；而相邻空间单元的 GDP 对该省域单元创新产出具有显著的正向效应；技术市场成交额对本省域的创新具有正向效应，但溢出效应不显著。最后提出我国东中西部地区差异性创新提升的对策建议。

Study on Differences Evolution and Factors of Provincial Regional in China-Evidences from the year of 1993-2013 Spatial Durbin Model

Taking 31 provincial units in China as the study area,this paper uses the spatial panel data,exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial econometric methods to analyze the provincial innovation evolution and influencing factors in Chi-na.Results show that during the study period of 1 997—201 3,provincial innovation spatial agglomeration degree and the spatial proximity effect kept increasing;the overall spatial difference experienced an expanding trend.The core district of regional innovation remained relatively stable in Yangtze river delta and the pearl river delta region;The coverage of the core area was shrinking in the eastern coastal region,while saw a trend of expansion in the Midwest China.Through the construction of spatial econometric model,the paper carries out the empirical research on the influencing factors of innova-tion outputs in provincial units.It is concluded that the R&D personnel of full -time equivalent,R&D spending,imports and exports of high technology product have significantly positive effects on innovation.And the GDP of the adjacent space unit has significantly positive effect on provincial innovation output.Market turnover has a positive effect on provincial tech-nology innovation,but the spillover effects are limited.Finally,this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to-wards the differentiated innovation in the eastern,central and western regions.