我国人口政策对经济增长的影响——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

构建了一个三期的入口政策与经济增长的理论模型框架,使用1995-2012年中国部分的30个省际面板数据,分别从全国、东部、中部和西部地区,建立面板模型和误差修正模型,分析出生率、受教育程度、适龄劳动参与率三个因素对经济增长的影响.结果表明:从全国来看出生率对经济增长并没有显著的影响,对于经济繁荣的东部地区出生率与经济增长表现出显著的正相关关系,中部地区出生率对经济增长并没有显著的作用,而对于相对落后西部地区出生率的增加反而会阻碍经济的增长.无论对于全国还是东、中、西三地区,受教育程度、适龄劳动参与率对经济增长均呈现出显著的正相关性,并且受教育程度从东向西对经济增长的贡献度逐渐减弱,而适龄劳动参与率从东向西对经济增长的贡献度逐渐递增.

China's Population Policy's Impact on Economic Growth:Based on empirical analysis of provincial panel data

This paper constructs a three population policy and economic growth model framework,we used 30 provinces' panel data of Chinese in 1995-2010,established the panel model and error correction model to analyze how the birth rate,level of education,labor force participation rate three factors affect economic growth from the nationwide,eastern,central and western regions.The results show that:to the nationwide,birth rate did no significant effect on economic growth;to the economic prosperity of the eastern region,birth rate and economic growth showed a significant positive correlation,to the central region,the birth rate had no significant effect on economic growth,to the relatively poorly western region,the increase of birth rate will block economic growth.The level of education and labor force participation rate show significant positive correlation with economic growth all for the nationwide,eastern,central and western regions.And the level of education from east to west on the contribution of economic growth gradually weakened,while labor force participation rate's contribution to the economic growth is increasing gradually from east to west.