基于灰色多层次评价方法的应急预案实施效果评价模型研究

突发事件发生后如何有效地评价应急预案的实施效果是近年来应急管理领域的一个热点和难点问题。为了有效解决应急预案实施效果评价中由于信息不完备、不确切以及评价者主观感知等产生的灰色性问题,以危化品泄漏事故为例,综合运用灰色系统理论和多层次分析法建立了基于灰色多层次评价的危化品泄漏事故应急预案实施效果评价模型,并通过算例说明了该方法的实用性。为应急预案的实施效果评价提供了一种可行的定量化计算方法,评价结果可为预案的修正提供参考建议。

Research on implementation effect evaluation model of emergencyplans based on multi-level and grey evaluation method

How to evaluate implementation effect of emergency plans after emergency is a research hotspot and difficult problem in emergency management fields in recent years. In order to solve the fuzzy and grey problem resulting from the incomplete and inaccurate information and subjective perception during the emergency plans evaluation, this paper took hazardous chemicals spill incident as an example and applied multi-level and grey evaluation method to the evaluation of contingency plans and built the evaluation model of incident of hazardous chemicals spill plans implementation. Then gave a detailed calculation example and proved the method to be practical. Therefore, this paper provided a viable quantitative calculation method to evaluate implementation effect of emergency plans, and further provided some revision suggestions based on the quantitative evaluation result.