对2000年人口普查出生性别比的分层模型分析

本文对以往出生性别比研究中的若干观点进行了学术评论,并讨论了个别经验统计分析中的方法问题。在此基础上,本文应用非线性分层模型将2000年全国人口普查1‰数据和1999年的地区级生育政策数据结合起来对出生性别比失调的影响因素进行了初步分析。结果表明,育龄妇女现有子女数量及性别和一些社会特征对出生性别比存在单独的影响,并且肯定了生育政策既存在对出生性别比的直接影响,也通过其与妇女以往生育结果以及其他社会特征之间的交互效应来影响出生性别比。

Sex Ratio at Birth in China in the 2000 Census:An HLM Analysis

This paper comments on some studies of sex ratio at birth by discussing methodological issues in these empirical analyses. The major purpose of this paper is, however, to conduct a multilevel investigation of sex ratio at birth using micro sample data from China 2000 population census and data of fertility policy at prefecture level. Results show that fertility history and social characteristics of women significantly affect their sex ratio at birth, while macro level fertility policy also influences significantly sex ratio at birth both directly and through the interaction with individual fertility history and social variables.