一种考虑预测电价和碳排放成本的大规模机组检修决策方法

随着国内电力市场和碳市场改革的持续深入，发电机组检修决策对于保证电力系统安全可靠运行和发电厂商经济收益的影响越来越深，同时机组检修优化问题的整数变量规模和约束条件规模急剧增加对优化问题的求解带来巨大挑战。对此，该文在考虑电力系统可靠性机组检修优化模型上，提出通过贝叶斯优化的方法训练检修优化模型，进而获得最佳分支打分因子值，然后加速整数规划中分支定界求解过程的方法，适用于大规模电力系统机组检修问题。此外，进一步剖析了发电机组发电收益和碳排放成本核算机理，提出一种电力市场环境下考虑碳排放成本的发电机组检修协调机制，在保证电力系统安全运行基础上，最大化各发电厂商检修机组的电能量市场和碳市场利益。最后，通过IEEE-118节点标准算例验证了该方法的有效性和工程实用性。

A Decision Method of the Large-scale Unit Maintenance Scheduling Considering Predicted Electricity Price and Carbon Emission Cost

With the increasing scale of domestic power system and the continuous deepening of the reform of domestic power market and carbon emission market, the reasonable arrangement of the unit maintenance scheduling has a more and more important impact on the reliability of the power system and the profits of generator manufacturers from the power market and the carbon emission market. On the other hand, the scale of integer variables and constraints of unit maintenance optimization problem also increases sharply. Considering the above problems, a unit maintenance optimization model considering power system reliability is proposed. In addition, with a method based on the Bayesian optimization proposed, to the solution progress of the model obtains the best branch scoring factor value to accelerate the branch-and-bound solution process in integer programming, which is more suitable for the application of the large-scale power system maintenance models. Moreover, a unit maintenance coordination mechanism considering the carbon emission cost and the predicted electricity price is advanced, which maximizing the generation profits in both electric energy market and carbon emission market during the annual unit maintenance scheduling with the safe operation of the power system. Finally, the effectiveness and the practicability of the above model are verified on the IEEE-118 bus system.