塔里木河源区冰川系统变化趋势预测

塔里木河源区是我国冰川分布最集中的地区之一,总面积达17 745.51 km2,占全国冰川总面积的30%;同时本区又属于我国升温幅度最大的地区之一。应用冰川系统变化的功能模型,对塔里木河源区冰川系统在本世纪对气候变化的趋势进行预测。结果表明:到2050年,如气温比1961~1990年高出1.9~2.3℃,本区冰川面积将减少4%~6%,冰川径流将增加22%~34%,零平衡线将上升62~94 m;如此升温率持续到本世纪末,则本区冰川面积将减少10%~16%,冰川径流将会回落,但仍比本世纪初多11%~13%,零平衡线将上升156~233 m。

Prediction on the Variation Trend of Glacier System in the Source Region of Tarim River Responding to Climate Change

The source Region of Tarim River,is one of the areas in China where the glaciers are concentrated,and the glacier area totaled as 17 745.51km~(2),accounting for 30% of the total glacier area in China.On the basis of the structure of glacier system and the nature of the equilibrium line altitudes at the steady state(ELA_(0)),functional model of the variation of glacier system are established.Under the climatic scenarios with temperature rising rate of 0.2~0.3K/10a and precipitation rising rate of 10%/K,the model results indicate that,by the year of 2050,glacier area will reduce to 4%~6%,glacier discharge-runoff increasing rate will be 22%~34%, ELA_(0)will rise by 62~94m respectively in the source Region of Tarim River.If the climatic scenarios with temperature rising rate of(0.2)~0.3K/10a and precipitation rising rate of 10%/K continues to the end of this century,the glacier area will reduce by 10%~16%,the glacier runoff will fall back,but still be 11%~13% than the beginning of this century;and the ELA_(0)will rise to 156~233m.