基于正态模糊线性回归确定河流横向扩散系数

为寻求水质污染时河流扩散参数的计算方法,以确定河流横向扩散系数的直线图解法为基础,在模糊数的基础上分析河流水团示踪试验数据,建立正态模糊线性回归模型,通过模糊集的隶属函数计算不同置信水平下河流横向扩散系数和河流平均流速等河流水质参数的取值区间。实际算例验证结果表明,应用正态模糊线性回归模型确定的河流水质参数值与真值非常接近,说明该方法是可行的,并且是可靠、合理的。该方法能够反映河流系统自身的不确定性以及实际中存在的各种不确定因素对其的影响。

Determining the Transversal Diffusion Coefficient of River Through Normal Fuzzy Linear Regression

To explore the method of calculating river’s diffusion coefficient in the presence of pollution,a normal fuzzy linear regression model was built,and through the membership function of fuzzy set,the ranges of water quali-ty parameters (transversal diffusion coefficient and average flow velocity)in the presence of different confidence levels were calculated.The model was built based on linear graphic method,and the tracer test data of water mass was analysed based on fuzzy numbers.The water quality parameters calculated by this model were very close to the real values,which accounts for the feasibility and rationality of this model.It could also reflect the uncertainty of river system and the effects of other uncertainties in practice.