港口煤炭库存与煤炭价格的关系研究

我国煤炭资源分布极不均匀,沿海经济较发达的省份煤炭供应需通过一些重要港口大量外调(主要是北方七港,其中最为重要的是秦皇岛港口),所以,研究我国主要港口煤炭库存与价格的相互关系就显得非常重要。根据主要港口煤炭库存及对应价格的概率分布,本文借助蒙特卡罗思想模拟出了港口煤炭库存与全国市场交易煤平均价格的相互影响关系,期望有利于我国煤炭运输与生产的合理衔接,稳定煤炭价格。

Research on the Relationship Between Coal Inventories in Ports and Coal Prices

Because of an uneven distribution of coal resources in China,so it requires inducing a large number of coal resources for the coastal provinces,whose economy are well developed,the mainly way is through some important ports(northern 7 ports are the main routes,among of which,Qinhuangdao Port is the principal one),consequently,it will be more significant to study the relationship between coal inventories in main ports and coal prices.According to the proba-bility distribution of coal inventories and the corresponding prices,the paper simulated the in-teraction between coal reserves in main ports and the national average market price based on the Monte Carlo Method,hoping to build a reasonable convergence between coal transport and production,and meanwhile,stabilize the coal prices.