生态足迹影响因子的定量分析

人口的膨胀和人类工业化进程的加剧，使得人类向自然界获取越来越多的资源，同时向环境源源不断的输入废弃物，已经严重超过了自然生态系统的供给能力和环境容量，生态环境日益恶化，水土流失、草场退化、植被消亡、生物多样性锐减、全球变暖等情况已经严重到难以遏制的地步，危及到人类自身的生存。在和平与发展成为世界两大主题的今天，人们越来越关注可持续发展的问题。在现有资料的基础上，利用主成分分析方法，定量地讨论了中国各省（区市）1999年生态足迹大小与其影响因子间的关系。结果表明，生态足迹的大小是各省（区市）的大中型企业个数、全社会固定生产投资等众多因子共同作用的结果，其中总人口和GDP是生态足迹大小的主要影响因子，其因子载荷量分别达到了0.940和0.913。值得一提的是非农业人口与生态足迹的相关系数超过了农业人口，这说明由于消费模式和生活水平等的差异，非农业人口对生态足迹的影响大于农业人口对生态足迹的影响。在此基础上建立了生态足迹影响因子的多元线性回归模型，以期为生态足迹在进行区域可持续发展评价的方法上提供新的思路。

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS ON THE IMPACT FACTORS OF ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT ——A CASE STUDY OF CHINA’S PROVINCES ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINTS IN 1999

With the increase of population and deepening of industrialization, human acquires more and more resources from nature while evacuating wastes to environment constantly, which have already exceeded supply and capacity of ecosystem and resulted in deterioration of ecological environment, lose of soil, degradation of grassland, withering of vegetation, decrease of biodiversity and global warming. All these have become so serious that people have difficulties to control. Hence, more and more people began to pay attention to sustainable development. This paper analyzed the relationship between the ecological footprints of China’s provinces in 1999 and their impact factors quantitatively with the principal components method. The results showed that the ecological footprints are impacted by the factors of numbers of corporations, social investment in fixed assets etc., in which population and GDP are the main impact factors. A problem worthy to be point out is that the correlation between non-agricultural population and ecological footprint is bigger than the correlation between agricultural population and ecological footprint, indicating that the amount of non-agricultural population can bring more impacts to ecological footprint than agricultural population resulted from the difference of model of consumption and standard of living. Based on the research, the regressive equation of ecological footprints and their impact factors is established in order to offer new ideas for the assessment of measuring sustainable development with the method of ecological footprint at regional level.