基于蒙特卡洛模拟的电网建设工程基本预备费测算

现行的电网建设工程基本预备费的测算主要依据固定费率，而基本预备费是预留来应对不可预见费用的，具有不确定性，仅仅依靠固定费率计取，不能很好地反映实际情况。为此，运用Minitab对影响电网建设工程基本预备费测算的各种因素（变更因素、自然灾害因素、额外建场费因素）的实际分布状况进行拟合分析，根据因素之间的相互关系建立测算模型，并结合实际案例通过Matlab进行蒙特卡洛模拟。模拟结果表明，与现行的测算方法相比，该方法能够很好地反映基本预备费的实际变动情况，可为造价人员合理控制工程造价提供参考。

Basic Reserve Fund Calculation of Power Grid Construction Project Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

At present, the basic reserve fund calculation method of power grid construction project is mainly based on a fixed rate. However, the basic reserve fund is to deal with the unexpected expenses, it has the characteristic of uncertainty, and cannot reflect the real situation of basic reserve fund though a fixed rate. Therefore, the distribution fitting of influence factors to basic reserve fund calculation were analyzed by Minitab, including change factor, natural disaster factor and extra building cost factor. Then a calculation model was established according to the relationship among the factors. Finally, combined with an actual case, the value of basic reserve fund was calculated by Monte Carlo simulation （MCS） on Matlab. The simulation results show that this calculation method can well reflect the accurate changes of basic reserve fund in actual works, compared with the existing calculation methods, which can provide a reference for related cost personnel to control project cost reasonable