Prediction of magnitude of the largest potentially induced seismic event |
| |
Authors: | Miroslav Hallo Ivo Oprsal Leo Eisner Mohammed Y Ali |
| |
Affiliation: | 1. Seismik Ltd., V Holesovickach 94/41, 18200, Praha 8, Czech Republic 2. Academy of Sciences, Institute of Rock Structure and Mechanics, V Holesovickach 94/41, 18200, Praha 8, Czech Republic 3. The Petroleum Institute, P. O. Box 2533, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
|
| |
Abstract: | We propose a method for determining the possible magnitude of a potentially largest induced seismic event derived from the Gutenberg–Richter law and an estimate of total released seismic moment. We emphasize that the presented relationship is valid for induced (not triggered) seismicity, as the total seismic moment of triggered seismicity is not bound by the injection. The ratio of the moment released by the largest event and weaker events is determined by the constants a and b of the Gutenberg–Richter law. We show that for a total released seismic moment, it is possible to estimate number of events greater than a given magnitude. We determine the formula for the moment magnitude of a probable largest seismic event with one occurrence within the recurrence interval (given by one volumetric change caused by mining or injecting). Finally, we compare theoretical and measured values of the moment magnitudes of the largest induced seismic events for selected geothermal and hydraulic fracturing projects. |
| |
Keywords: | |
本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录! |
|