Explanation and reliability of prediction models: the case of breast cancer recurrence

In this paper, we describe the first practical application of two methods, which bridge the gap between the non-expert user and machine learning models. The first is a method for explaining classifiers’ predictions, which provides the user with additional information about the decision-making process of a classifier. The second is a reliability estimation methodology for regression predictions, which helps the users to decide to what extent to trust a particular prediction. Both methods are successfully applied to a novel breast cancer recurrence prediction data set and the results are evaluated by expert oncologists.