国际贸易网络中的靴襻渗流模型

根据国际贸易网络的特点,提出基于该网络的靴襻渗流基本模型,模拟危机传播的级联过程。进而得到两个一般模型:比例模型和GDP模型。接着探究危机具体传播过程,根据影响方式不同,将受影响的国家进行分类。模拟结果表明,大部分源国家的危机传播范围随阈值Ω呈现出相变现象,比较各源国家相变现象的Ω值大小可得到相应的危机影响力。针对给定参数Ω,探讨模型的具体传播过程和影响程度。结果反映出模型的合理性,为危机传播预测和过程探讨提供参考。

Bootstrap Percolation Model in International Trade Network

Based on the features of international trade network, this paper proposes a basic model of bootstrap percolation to simulate cascading process of crisis propagation. Two general models, proportion model and GDP model, are derived from the basic model. According to different transmission modes, the affected countries are classified into four types and specific propagation processes are explored. Simulation results show that the vast majority of affected countries occur phase transition phenomenon with the threshold Ω. Comparing the threshold Ω in phase transition point of different sources countries, we can obtain their relative crisis consequences. For a given parameter Ω, we discuss the specific transmission and their scope. Results reflect the rationality of this model.