台风综合预报GDSS的研究

以会商式台风综合预报为背景，首先，分析了传统会商式台风综合预报存在的不足。其次，针对这些不足提出了改进意见：针对参与者意见的集结问题，提出了融合有序综合评价和专家权值的群体偏好集结算法；针对会商要求参与者坐在PC前面的问题，引入了基于J2ME的手机专家；针对会商结论受主观因素影响较大的特点，引入了以各种客观预报方法为基础的客观专家。最后，给出了改进后的台风综合预报GDSS整体流程，设计并实现了原型系统。

Research on Typhoon Comprehensive Forecast

This paper is based on typhoon comprehensive forecast.First,it analyzes the drawbacks of traditional typhoon forecast.Second,it makes some improvements according to these drawbacks: it puts forward a preference algorithm based on sequential evaluation and expert weight to collect the group's opinions;it introduces a mobile expert based on J2ME,which allows the attendant to take part in the negotiation meeting without sitting in front of the computer;it introduces an objective forecast expert based on all ki...