工程项目进度风险管理的贝叶斯网络建模与分析

为研究不确定情况下的工程项目进度风险管理问题，对进度风险的贝叶斯网络模型进行了改进。给出了建设工程项目进度贝叶斯网络的定义，并将工作节点、时间节点等相关节点引入到网络模型中，分析了项目中各工作之间的不确定性关系、持续时间的不确定性，并讨论了建设工程项目进度贝叶斯网络的建模过程及概率推理算法。通过案例分析说明该模型对不确定环境下的工程项目进度风险管理的有效性，对指导实际工程项目的进度风险管理具有重要意义。

Modeling and Analysis of Bayesian Network in Engineering Project Schedule Risk Management

In order to study engineering project schedule risk management under uncertainty，the article improves schedule bayesian network of schedule risks. The definition of engineering project schedule bayesian network is put forward. meanwhile, some nodes such as working nodes and timing nodes are introduced. The modeling method and probability inference algorithm are studied afterwards after considering the uncertainty relations of workings and lasting times. With case study，this model is verified in its effectiveness in engineering project schedule risk management under uncertainty and its significance in guiding engineering project schedule risk management.