模糊故障树分析方法在工程质量风险分析中的应用

采用故障树理论,从系统的角度对工程质量事故的原因进行逐层分解,从而对影响工程质量的风险因素进行辨识.考虑到实际应用中故障树底事件发生概率的取值具有一定的不确定性,将底事件的发生概率作为模糊数进行处理,利用模糊集合论的表现定理求得表示故障树顶事件发生概率的模糊数,并且对底事件的重要度进行了分析.最后,通过对水利工程中混凝土浇注质量的模糊故障树分析说明了整个风险分析过程.实例分析表明基于模糊数的故障树分析方法对工程质量风险分析是可行的并具有一定的应用价值.

Application of fuzzy fault tree analysis to risk analysis of construction quality

The fault tree analysis is adopted to analyze the causation of the construction quality accident hierarchically from systematical viewpoint herein, and then the risk factors impacting the construction quality are identified. Under the consideration the taken value of the probability the basic event of the fault tree actually used has some uncertainness, the probability of the basic events is dealt with by taking it as fuzzy number and the fuzzy number to present the probability of the basic event of the fault tree are obtained by using the representation theorem of the fuzzy set, and then the significance of the basic event is analyzed. At last, the whole process of the risk analysis is described through an analysis on fault tree of the concrete placing quality during construction of a water works. The analysis on the actual case shows that the analysis method based on the fuzzy fault tree is feasible and valuable for the risk analysis made on the construction quality.