基于“性能-因素”关联关系挖掘的中压配电网可靠性评估

从数据关联性分析的角度提出一种中压配电网可靠性定量快速评估方法。首先,基于多种提升配电网可靠性的方式,建立"性能-因素"双层评估指标体系分别表征系统的可靠性能及建设现状。然后,通过虚拟配电网生成系统计算我国海量不同类型配电网的相关指标以提供数据支撑。最后,建立分步回归模型挖掘指标关联关系,该模型结合对配电网故障模式的分析,将多元非线性回归问题转化为多次单元回归问题并最终求得指标关联显性表达式。对3个算例系统及一个实际系统的可靠性评估验证了模型的有效性。

Evaluation of Medium-Voltage Distribution Network Reliability Based on"Performance-Element" Correlation Mining

This paper proposes a fast and quantitative reliability evaluation method for medium-voltage distribution network by using data correlation analysis. First, we establish "performance-element" double-deck evaluation system based on distribution network reliability improving methods, which symbolizes the reliable performance and construction status of the system, respectively. Second, through virtual distribution network simulation system we calculate enormous indexes of different kinds of distribution network to provide data support. Last, we establish stepwise regression model to analyze the correlation among indexes, which transforms the multivariate nonlinear regression problem into the multi-step simple regression problem with considering distribution network failure mode, and finally obtains index correlation explicit expression. The validity of the proposed model has been verified through the reliability evaluation on three test distribution network and one real distribution system.