| 手足口病传播的数学模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王梦圆,;马文文,;孙牧,;陆佳玲,;郭龙娇,;叶德文,;屠小明.手足口病传播的数学模型研究[J].山东生物医学工程,2014(1):35-38. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王梦圆 ;马文文 ;孙牧 ;陆佳玲 ;郭龙娇 ;叶德文 ;屠小明 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]南京医科大学医政学院,南京210029; [2]南京医科大学康达学院,南京210029; [3]南京医科大学基础医学院,南京210029 |
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| 摘 要： | 手足口病是一种由肠道病毒引起的常见传染病。自从1981年上海地区首次报道该病以来,手足口的流行范围在我国逐步扩大,造成了严重的公共卫生问题。我们根据手足口病在不同人群之间的流动关系,以常微分方程作为建模工具,构建手足口病传播的动力学模型。通过参数调整和模型求解,讨论了手足口病的平衡点和稳定性,得出疾病传播阈值,从而进行疾病流行趋势的预测以及对各种具体防控措施的模拟和评价。
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| 关 键 词： | 手足口病 流行规律 数学模型 平衡点 稳定性 |
Research for Transmission of Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease based on Mathematical Model |
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| Affiliation: | WANG Mengyuan,MA Wenwen,SUN Mu,LU Jialing, GUO Longjiao, YE Dewen, TU Xiaoming (1. School of Health Policy and Management, Nanfing Medical University, Nanjing 210029, China; 2. Kangda College,Nanfing Medical University, Nanjing 210029; 3. School of Basic Medical Science, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 210029) |
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| Abstract: | Hand-foot-and-mouth disease（ HFMD） is a common infectious disease caused by human enterovirus. Since the first case of HFMD was reported in Shanghai 1981,the magnitude of the epidemic has been extended to many other regions and resulted in a serious problem of publich health. Based on the flow relationship of HFMD among different populations,we took ODE as a modeling tool to build the dynamic model of the spread of HFMD. By solving the model and adjusting the parameter,the balance point and stability are discussed and disease transmission threshold can be obtained,which is conducive to the prediction of the epidemic trend and the simulation and evaluation on various specific control measures. |
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| Keywords: | Hand-foot-mouth disease（HFMD） Epidemic law Mathematical model Balance point Stability |
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