| 北京冬小麦产量预报的一种建模方案 |
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| 引用本文： | 王春乙,潘亚茹,白月明,温民. 北京冬小麦产量预报的一种建模方案[J]. 气象学报, 1994, 52(2): 223-230 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王春乙 潘亚茹 白月明 温民 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象科学研究院 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对农业产量气象预测的各类统计模式中所存在的某些不足，如趋势产量外推的稳定性，预报因子的物理及生物学意义、相关阶段性、多元共线性，回归系数稳定性和剩余产量的处理等，提出了不同的解决办法。在北京冬小麦产量预报试验中收到较好的效果。
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| 关 键 词： | 主分量分析，冬小麦，岭回归，ARMA模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 1992-05-20 |
| 修稿时间： | 1992-10-08 |
THE STATISTICS MODEL OF OPERATIONAL PREDICTION FOR WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION IN BEIJING |
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| Wang Chunyi,Pan Yarn,Bai Yueming and Wen Min. THE STATISTICS MODEL OF OPERATIONAL PREDICTION FOR WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION IN BEIJING[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 1994, 52(2): 223-230 |
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| Authors: | Wang Chunyi Pan Yarn Bai Yueming Wen Min |
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| Affiliation: | Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing, 100081;Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing, 100081;Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing, 100081;Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing, 100081 |
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| Abstract: | Some techniques are put forward to overcome the disadvantages in various statistical models of meteorological predication of agricultural production, which are tested through the predication of winter wheat in Beijing and the results are proved to be better than usual. |
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| Keywords: | rincipal components analysis Winter wheat Ridge regression ARMA model. |
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