水电站设备健康预测方法研究

随着电力系统的日益发展，水电站供电可靠性和设备故障率之间的矛盾日益突出，需要有效、科学的对各类设备进行健康预测，提高水电站设备运行的可靠性和稳定性。本文针对水电站设备健康预测中存在的“研究故障表象多，研究故障机理少，研究单一方法多，研究综合诊断少”的问题，提出了一种基于水电站设备故障机理研究的健康预测方法，该方法在实践中获得了成功应用，对其它领域运行设备的健康预测有重要的启示作用。

Research Prediction Methods of Hydropower Station Equipment Health

With the development of power system,the contradiction between the power supply reliability and the rate of equipment fault in the hydropower station is prominent increasingly.To improve the reliability and stability of the hydrepower station,the effective and scientific health forecast is necessary. According to the following problems existing in equipment health prediction of hydrepower station： the fault representation is more than fault mechanism; the number of single methods is more than it of comprehensive diagnosis methods, this paper puts forward a kind of health forecast method for equipment based on the research of hydropower station equipment fault mechanism.This method has been applied to practice successfully,and enlightens the health prediction of equipment in other fields.