Efficacy of Lung Cancer Screening; Comparison of Results from a Case-Control Study and a Survival Analysis

A case-control study to evaluate the efficacy of lung cancer screening conducted by us showed that lung cancer screening may reduce the mortality of the disease up to 28%. Assuming this efficacy is unbiased, and that the screening rate is 51.6%, which was observed in the control group in the above study, the number of lung cancer deaths prevented by screening in the study period was calculated to be 47 for males and females combined. In the same study population, screen-detected lung cancer patients (N = 207) in the same study period were followed and the 7-year survival rate (46.9%) was compared to the 5-year survival rate (11.3%) obtained by the Osaka Cancer Registry, in which screen-detected lung cancer patients were only 1.8%. The number of lung cancer deaths prevented by screening, estimated by the difference in the above two survival rates, was 74 (95% confidence interval; 55–93). The number of lung cancer deaths prevented by screening estimated from the case-control study was significantly lower than that estimated from the survival analysis. This indicates that the efficacy of lung cancer screening estimated by the case-control study was within the range that could be explained by the actual long-term survivors among the screen-detected patients in the study population.