地热资源评价的蒙特卡罗方法及其在雄县的应用

地热资源评价是贯穿地热勘查和开发全程的一项工作。不同地热勘查和开发阶段资料的丰富程度不同，评价方法也不同。体积法在地热调查初期或大区域地热资源评价中应用广泛，此时数据较少并呈现较大的空间变化，可结合蒙特卡罗等随机模拟和风险评价方法计算。然而当地质结构较为复杂时，热储温度和体积不易确定。本文基于体积法，通过地质建模求取热储温度和体积，并采用蒙特卡罗法进行模拟，对雄县地区3000 m以浅砂岩和碳酸盐岩热储的地热资源储量进行了评价，可为区域地热资源静态储量的评价提供借鉴。

Application of Monte Carlo Simulation in the Evaluation of Regional Geothermal Resources

Geothermal resource evaluation is an important work which should be done through geothermal resources investigation and development. Various methods have been proposed depending on the data availability of geothermal reservoirs. The volume method is preferred and has been widely used both in the early phases of geothermal development when the data is sparse and in regional geothermal resource evaluation. As the data are either limited and with high uncertainties or with great spatial variation, stochastic and risk analysis methods such as Monte Carol simulation are frequently used to estimate the range and probable distribution of stored heat reserves. However, it is usually difficult to determine the temperature and volume of the reservoir, especially when the geological structures become sophisticated. In this paper, a combined method based on Monte Carlo simulation and geological modeling to characterize both the uncertainty of the temperature and volume of the reservoir is used to estimate the capacity of geothermal resources in Xiongxian. This work can provide reference for the evaluation of regional static geothermal reserves.