气候变化与北疆北部2000年特大雪灾的必然性及预测

利用1960～2003年新疆阿勒泰地区7测站及塔城地区北部5测站当年11月至次年1月,44a气温、降水资料,研究了北疆北部冬季气候变化特征,解释了2000年该地区冬季特大雪灾极端气候事件出现的必然性,最后探讨了该地区冬季降水的预测问题;并得出一点很有意义的结论:在气候增暖、增湿背景下,特大雪灾也是可以预报的。

The Inevitability of Unusual Heavy Snow Disaster in the North of Northern Xinjiang in 2000 with Climate Warm and It''''s Prediction

Make use of the air temperature and precipitation data from Nov.last year to Jan.in 1960-2004 in Xinjiang Aletai area 7 observation stations and Tacheng area 5 observation stations,and investigated the characteristic of winter weather variety in the north of northrn Xinjiang,made clear those region the inevitability of occured extreme unusual heavy snow disaster events,discussed the prediction of precipitation in winter;and get some meaningful conclusion.These conclusions having certainly function in weather forecast,thereby enhanced the forecast accurate rate in winter.So as to work betterly in the decision service,reduce the loss of disaster to minimum extent at future.