基于验前信息可信度的鱼雷实航工作可靠度Bayes融合评估方法

针对火箭助飞鱼雷作战效能中实航工作可靠度这一指标的考核,存在着试验样本数少、风险高等缺陷,不利于对该指标作出正确的评估。为此,借鉴战术导弹鉴定试验技术,使用验前信息进行指标融合评估,但为防止大量的验前信息＂淹没＂现场试验信息的可能性,提出了基于验前信息可信度的后验加权Bayes融合评估的鱼雷实航工作可靠度指标考核方法,该方法能够较真实地评估出鱼雷实航工作可靠度指标。

A Bayesian Fusion and Evaluation Method for Operational Reliability of Torpedo in Sea Trial Based on Credibility of Prior Information

Operational reliability is one of the important indexes for evaluating operational effectiveness of a rocket-assisted torpedo.However,the evaluation of operational reliability has the disadvantages of small test sample and high risk.To overcome the disadvantages,we introduce the evaluation test technology for tactical missile into fusing and evaluating the index with prior information,and present a posterior-weighted Bayesian fusion and evaluation method for torpedo′s operational reliability in sea trial based on the credibility of the prior information to prevent the test informa-tion to be possibly inundated with much prior information.Example analysis shows that our method can accurately evaluate the operational reliability of torpedo in sea trial.