经济增长率及其来源分析方法的新改进——加入地区权重的索洛增长核算模型及中国的实证

以往学者在分析区域或国家经济增长率及其来源时,通常将用索洛增长核算模型测算得到的各个地区的经济增长率及其来源进行简单加总取均值,忽略了各个地区占整个区域或国家的比重。基于收入函数相关理论,在分析区域或国家的经济增长率及其来源时,应对各个地区的经济增长率及其来源进行加权处理;从决策单元、子集和总集的层面对索洛增长核算模型进行改进,得到进行加权处理(权重即地区总产出占整个区域或国家总产出的比重)的理论依据和方法。根据改进后的索洛增长核算模型对我国2000年以来的经济增长率及其来源进行实证分析,结果表明,改进后的测算结果较改进前GDP增长率有了一定的提高;而对于西部地区,改进前显著低估了劳动贡献率和TFP贡献率,但却较大程度地高估了资本的贡献率。

An Improvement of Analysis Methods for Economic Growth Rate and Its Sources——Solow Growth Calculation Model with Regional Weight and Its Empirical Analysis of China

When previous scholars analyzed regional or national economic growth rate and their sources,they usually used Solow Growth Calculation Model to obtain mean value by making brief sum of economic growth rate and its sources of all regions but overlooked its proportion of each region to all regions or the whole country.Based on the related income function theory,when regional or national economic growth rate and its sources are analyzed,economic growth rate and its sources of each region should be calculated by weight and Solow Growth Calculation Model should be improved on the level of decision unit,subset and sylloge to get the proportion of regional total output to the output of all regions or the whole country on theoretical basis and by method of weight.According to the improved Solow Growth Calculation Model,this paper makes empirical analysis of China’s economic growth rate and its sources since 2000,the results show that GDP growth rate is higher from the calculation by improved Model than by original Model and that labor contribution rate and TFP contribution rate are significantly underestimated for west regions of China but capital contribution rate is highly estimated by unimproved Model.