基于系统动力学的电力系统中长期负荷预测

将系统动力学应用于电力负荷的中长期预测。首先根据历史用电情况分析建立模型结构图，然后进行方程式设计，最后通过仿真和参数敏感度测试证明模型的合理性和实用性。电力系统负荷中长期变化是一个受政策、经济等多方面不定因素综合影响的动态过程，采用系统动力学的方法进行预测可以充分利用专家的经验，并且在模型使用中不断积累经验，提高了预测精度。

LONG-TERM ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING BASED ON SYSTEM DYNAMICS

This paper applies system dynamics to the long- term electric load forecasting.It builds up the model according to the analysis of the historical electricity consumption situation,then designs the m odel equations.Finally itproves the m odel's rationality and practicability with sim ulation and parameter sensitivity test.The change of the electric load in the long term is a dynam ic process,which is greatly influenced by m any uncertain factors like economy and policy,etc.L ong- term load forecasting based on system dynam ics can make full use of the expert experience,and accum ulate experience by using model, so as to increase the forecasting precision.